In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote, and from 40 per cent to 36 per cent in the regional vote and from 43 per cent to 42 per cent for Westminster. YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. The YouGov poll of voting intention conducted over Wednesday and Thursday showed 54% support for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament". Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls suggest it will be a knife-edge after a recent drop in SNP's approval rating and a small rise in Labour and Conservatives. YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Most polling companies listed here are members of the . The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. In results published for the survey taken March 24-25, 2022 . We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Business & professional services. US ; About ; For business ; . Prince Harry's popularity in the UK has decreased by 35 percentage points over the past four years, a new survey by IPSOS has found. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. This once again reaffirms how sleaze and scandal remain the most potent political weapons in British politics, ones which can quickly and easily cut through to voters. Much of the YouGov poll's Labour lead was buoyed by 17% of people who had previously voted for Boris Johnson saying they would now vote for Labour - double that of a week ago. 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However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. , in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. A total of 21 per cent said they didnt know., UnHerd Britain 2023, published on 10 Feb 2023Full results, YouGov poll, reported in The Times on 05 Feb 2023. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions.Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. Jeremy Corbyn is not allowed to stand as a Labour MP at the next election would he still get your vote? conducted. In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Five missions focused on fixing the fundamentals, says Starmer ahead of major speech, The decline and fall of the one nation Conservative. The Conservative party regained a minor amount of ground in the first 3 weeks of the Rishi Sunak premiership, but Mr Sunaks honeymoon period has been short lived, and those advances stalled soon after Jeremy Hunts financial statement. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. Should the public's feeling remain largely down. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. Dates. The latest monthly polling averages on Scottish independence show No campaigners to have consolidated their lead in the polls once again. In early March 2023, the Labour Party continue to consolidate their substantial lead over the Conservatives, one which is now trending at 21%.. Polling averages extrapolated in the 3 weeks to 2 March place Labour on 47.3%, the Conservatives on 26.8%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9.3%. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. Our first Tory members poll since the final two candidates were decided shows Liz Truss with a 24pt . A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to move south during Monday followed by frequent snow and hail showers, Ken Bruce leaves BBC with veiled jibe after they ended his show early over concerns was free advertising for a rival, The 72-year-old Glaswegian left Radio to join Greatest Hits Radio in April after the Beeb told him to step down 17 days early, Teaching strikes held off as union on brink of striking pay deal. Education. conservative party Labour Party Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. Question asked is stated in notes field. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. [1] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. on public opinion. A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. 48 hour snow warning for Scotland as Met Office predicts an icy start to spring, Don't put your winter woollies away yet! Keir Starmer's lead over Rishi Sunak has increased to 7 pointsin terms of the party leader Britons think would make the best prime minister, by 34% (+2) to 27% (-1). On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. Analysis pieces written by YouGov's data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Trump. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted a fortnight after Rishi Sunak became prime minister, shows Labour maintaining a significant lead over the Conservatives. About; Social . LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Support for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party has slipped behind the opposition Labour party to its lowest level since the 2019 national. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit". The majority of people believe that a doctors approval should be needed for a person to change their sex in law. Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. NewsNow aims to be the world's most accurate and comprehensive aggregator of news about Scotland opinion polls, which are carried out by various polling companies, including members of the British Polling Council (BPC), such as YouGov, Ipsos MORI, and Survation. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. . You can unsubscribe whenever you want. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2014 Scottish independence referendum to the present day. The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techne (February 23) which placed the Yes side on 45.3% and the No side on 54.7%, post adjusting for undecided voters. In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. % 28 45 9 4 1 3 7 2 Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. All Rights Reserved. The exclusive poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, has support for Yes at its lowest level since just before the 2019 general election, which saw Boris Johnson's Conservative party earn an . The poll, commissioned by WalesOnline has found support for the Tories in Wales now sits at just 19%. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Last updated Feb 28, 2023 View all Articles (514) Voting Intention: Con 23%, Labour 46% politics 1 day ago Trackers Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively. YouGov poll, reported in the Telegraph on 31 Jan 2023Full results, The Times poll, conducted by YouGov, reported on 21 Jan 2023, Wings Over Scotland/The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 19 Dec 2022: Why do SNP voters hate women?, The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 17 Dec 2022, The Times poll, reported on 16 Oct 2022Full results. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here.. Entering the summer, levels of Conservative support took a sudden 3% hit following the resignation of then health secretary, Matt Hancock, in June 2021. Automotive. Pollster. Polling aggregator Stats for Lefties has calculated that, if this poll were repeated in a general election, the Tories would win just 17 seats behind Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. The Conservatives continued to record significant poll leads over Labour almost consistently throughout 2020 and 2021, with only a brief interlude in autumn 2020 where this narrowed. In Wales, Plaid Cymru is currently on course to lose one seat to Labour. Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. Use at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol. In the case of Wales, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the most recent YouGov poll produced on 27 February. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. Please ensure your password has at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol. The poll for the Sun found. That's according to a new YouGov poll commissioned by WalesOnline to mark St David's Day 2023. . Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. This Conservative poll lead coincided with the unusual event of a governing party winning a seat from the Opposition, as occurred in the May 2021 Hartlepool by-election. This analysis has drawn on the latest opinion polls that were specific to Wales and Scotland respectively. Id 100% bang this poll pic.twitter.com/zW5y7LzwXS. Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . The government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and our media is run by a handful of billionaires, most of whom reside overseas and all of them have strong political allegiances and financial motivations. Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Should religious people be allowed to hold top political jobs? Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Yes at 46 per cent when Nicola Sturgeon quit with Labour support rising, poll finds. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. At the end of the 1970s, support for Scottish independence was polling at little more than 10%. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. Support for Welsh independence has fallen back to its lowest level in three years, a St David's Day poll for Wales carried out by pollsters YouGov has shown. Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. That lead then jumped to a staggering 24% in the three weeks after former chancellor Kwarsi Kwartengs mini budget and prior to Liz Truss resignation. Fewer than three in ten (29 per cent) respondents said they supported the [Gender Recognition Reform] bill, but more than half (54 per cent) said they opposed it. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. To donate or subscribe to The London Economic, click here. Scotlands Political Landscape After Nicola Sturgeon? Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. Click here to sign-in and subscribe via a link sent to your email. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. In the case of Scotland, Politics.co.uk drew on the most recent Scottish voting intention polling data from Survation on 18 February. This time 12 months ago, the Conservative party was still just ahead in the polls. The TLE shop is also now open, with all profits going to supporting our work. 4th October 2022| In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. The YouGov poll released on Monday night put the lead for the no campaign at six points, down from 14 points in the middle of August and 22 points early last month. Across the whole of the UK, the YouGov poll conducted on November 1-2 predicted Labour way out ahead on 50 per cent of the vote (down one point) and the Tories marooned on 25 per cent (up one point). Company number: SC669393. When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% an 11 point lead. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. The Conservatives have climbed by three percentage points to 33 per cent since the last poll. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list,. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Voting Intention. 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Scottish independence, tracking changes over time. The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No". CalMac warns of further disruption to ferry service due to lack of backup ferries, The ferry operator is facing frequent issues as it has to constantly repair the aging fleet which is blighted with problems due to the lack of back ups, Scottish lags misuse 4.1million taxpayer-funded mobile phones more than 7,000 times in three years, More than 4,082 inmates have been caught out for using mobile phones paid for by the taxpayers to commit crimes while in prison, Iconic Glasgow bakery Mortons Rolls 'ceases all trading' after 58 years. Labour remain on top with 37 per cent in the poll published this morning, an increase of one percentage point. Keir Starmer has finally found his Clause IV moment. Kemi Badenoch, who has proved popular . With plans for the establishment of a Scottish parliament in Holyrood by the Blair government in the late 1990s, support for Scottish independence rose once again. We will not share your email address with any third parties. In the case of Northern Ireland, with its own political parties, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the LucidTalk opinion poll of 3 February. Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have 9% of the vote (no change), while the Greens have 7% (-1) and Reform UK have 3% of the vote (no change). In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Reform UK are also polling in the region of 6-7%. Labour would be nipping at their heels with 22 Scottish MPs, up from just one currently. YouGov Westminster voting intention If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. ", Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK? As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. This compares with the position in the 2014 Independence referendum, when 55.3% of Scottish voters opposed plans for an Independent Scotland, with 44.7% voting in favour. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. Latest Westminster voting intention (14-15 Feb)Con: 22% (-2 from 8-9 Feb)Lab: 50% (+3)Lib Dem: 9% (-1)Reform UK: 7% (+1)Green: 6% (=)SNP: 4% (=)https://t.co/WMc2U2wZbs pic.twitter.com/NZ9QZygUG7. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9 per cent of the vote (-1), but could be well placed to pick up vital seats in the Blue Wall, where voters would sooner pinch their nose and vote amber over red. With the Conservatives polling over 50%, this lead briefly surpassed 20% at the beginning of the Covid pandemic in March and April 2020. For Labour and the Lib Dems parties which also supported the legislation and oppose Westminsters intervention the figures are 13 per cent and 14 per cent respectively., The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 11 Feb 2023.
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