"Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Telegram Telegram We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. They simply vote on merit. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. Sumter County, . Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Contributors wanted "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. (subject to censorship). But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Click here, for more. 12. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. What science tells us about the afterlife. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Their hopes are real. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. The matters that way on their minds are real. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. It is easy to gloss over this. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Hillary Clinton speaks during a rally at the Abraham Lincoln High School on Jan. 31 in Des Moines, Iowa. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. The divisions were everywhere. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. What are your thoughts on this article? Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. All Rights Reserved. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. In 2020, a single. 8. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Still, the state's worth watching. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Not anymore. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Trump won 18 of the 19. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. 9. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. 108,000 people. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Election night is going to be information overload. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. What, if anything, did we miss? It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. But both are worth watching. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Want to dive deeper? (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Team up with others in your region, and help out by It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections.
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